Google the good in Q4
By now the headlines already will have covered the basics. Google’s (GOOG) fourth-quarter revenues were up 18% to $5.7 billion, a solid showing. Profits fell, but only because Google wrote down loser investments in AOL, a unit of Fortune parent Time Warner (TWX), and Clearwire, the Wimax company that’s also an embarrassment to Motorola and Intel (INTC). On a day that Microsoft’s (MSFT) stock tanked by 12%, once again Google comes up smelling like roses. Not super fragrant roses. But roses all the same.
Google believes it is doing well because scarce advertising dollars continue to flow to search and because it keeps improving its search engine. (Google made 300-plus search-quality improvements during 2008, says the company’s product pooh-bah Jonathan Rosenberg.) Microsoft, in comparison, can’t shoot straight online. Earlier in the day the company reported that its online unit’s operating loss had doubled to $471 million on flat revenue.
Google’s got almost $16 billion in cash now, compared with $28 billion for Apple (AAPL) and about $21 billion for Microsoft (which has given back oodles to its shareholders in the form of special dividends). Google ended the year with 20, 222 employees (one of whom is my wife), up about 100 people from the previous quarter. That’s a sea change for the company that previously couldn’t recruit people fast enough. (Larry Page, who likes to review every hire, must be at least a little relieved by this.)
If there was anything at all notable about Google’s results and comments to investors during an end-of-day conference call, it is the curious prudence that has crept into its collective voice. Google always used to say it was careful about costs and thoughtful about how it managed its resources. That was well understood to be code language for: “We spend willy nilly — wouldn’t you? — and we’re willing to try just about anything. Our core business is that good.”
Things have changed a bit. Credit this with new CFO Patrick Pichette, who has been at Google only six months and is carefully deciding where — and where not — to push. You can hear the tension in his own conflicting statements. “We have a lot of flexibility within our model,” he said Wednesday, meaning Google easily can cut more costs when it wants or needs to. And then, “We are managing this business for the long term. The mindset of the company is a growth company.” That latter comment signals Google will continue to invest and spend on things that may never see a return, just as powerful risk-taking concerns should — despite the professed commitment to prudence.
So where does the more measured behavior manifest itself? I’ve already noted the hiring halt. Capital expenditures declined 19% from the third quarter to $368 million. This is a huge deal in Googledom as capex goes primarily to data centers and other hardware that make the Google search engine hum.
One last item of note. Google is offering employees the opportunity to exchange underwater stock options for newly priced options due to the stock price having been hammered. (The only catch in the exchange is that employees will have to wait an additional 12 months before selling re-priced options.) The stock price is currently around $300, compared with $700 in late 2007. The number of shares eligible for exchange is about 3% of the shares outstanding, and the exchange will result in a charge to earnings of $460 million over a five-year period.
One must re-phrase this last bit in English: Google is transferring almost half a billion dollars in wealth from shareholders to employees, and for what ….? Motivation and retention, says Google. This a well known farce, as old as the Valley, which tells itself first that it offers generous stock options as a form of incentive and then, when share prices plummet, moves the ball so its employees, whose incentives apparently didn’t work (as if the stock price were under their control) can be re-incentivized. Retention? Would someone please tell me where the average Google employee is going to go right now?
In conclusion, and as the headline says, Google is in good shape. Not fantastic. But plenty damn good. It’s also becoming more and more like other technology companies in so many ways.
Sorry, this stock and company are over-valued. As the recession hits harder and more companies are dissolved and go out of business, you are going to see less and less advertising, especially in the ‘ghost’ market where you never know if anyone is even looking at the ad placed and they can cook the number of hits. Google is a house of cards waiting to fall. Remember years and years ago, Yahoo was in Googles place and look where they are.
Stock options is a scam. It is basically an expense but doesn’t show up in cash flow (shows up slowly as dilution!). Why not just hand out the cost, $460M, as bonus and be upfront about it since clearly that amount is a cost necessary to retain employees? That will help stockholders evaluate the company better. Look at Microsoft – they diluted over the 80-90s through options but are paying the cost now by buying back shares with their cash; thus, the cost of the 80s/90s are being borne now. It would have been a lot cleaner to pay as you go.
Repricing of employee stock options is prudent. Employee stock options are the primary wealth creator in Silicon Valley. Handsomely rewarding employees who create wealth enables you to recruit new top talent, creating a virtuous value creating cycle. Contrast this with firms in other industries, such as financial firms. Typically these companies will reward on the upper echelon management ranks, and will do so despite dismal results. Meanwhile, employees at these firms recieve a much smaller reward for the value they create. This reduces their productivity and decreases the corporation’s ability to attract new talent. Google’s profit reductions this quarter were the result of book value impairments that had nothing to do with the majority of employees, so why should they impair their future productivity and innovation just because a few investments went south?
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“you are going to see less and less advertising”
I think we will see more advertising early this year. Major corporations are following the age old rule of gaining market share while everyone is down. The tables are going to turn for those who spend the most in marketing right now. Google will suffer its low-end ad word programs but brokering larger volume accounts through double click and ad vendors will probably sky rocket for the corps. with deep pockets.